Growth Forecasts

Small Area Projections

Building on work done by Brian Lister, and working closely with Brisbane City Council, TransPosition has developed a small area growth projection model for predicting population and employment at the lot level.

First implemented in the Brisbane Urban Growth (BUG) model, the projections are prepared using detailed data including:

  • Lot level data on current land use, property values
  • Development constraints, including flooding, acid sulphate soil and slope
  • Zoning data
  • Development and building applications

The outputs of the accessibility model are also used to assess locational desirability, giving an integrated land use/transport linkage. The model assesses the development options on each lot, with a view to what is permitted, development cost and demand. It also integrates with top down demographic or economic projections, such as those prepared by ABS, PIFU (for population) and NIEIR (for employment). The model has been developed for Brisbane (where it is being updated for BUG Stage II) and is being applied in Logan City and the Sunshine Coast.