In recent years there has been an increasing requirement for local government authorities to develop detailed infrastructure plans to support government, infrastructure providers and the development industry in future planning. Historically there has been very little in the way of analytical tools to inform this process.
TransPosition has developed a model for projecting changes in land use in defined areas using an economic model of development profitability. This determines the sequencing of development of all types according to estimates of population and employment growth over time.
This model takes detailed land use data down to the lot level with individual properties and buildings identified, combined with local street and lot level accessibility data to generate an extremely detailed pricing model to determine viability and profitability of competing development options. The development timeline is controlled to top-down totals for population and employment by type, ensuring projections that are completely consistent with higher level demographic and economic forecasts.
The model organically deals with topographical, environmental, heritage and other factors by treating them as constraints in the same process in which the planning scheme is assessed. Scenario testing, such as examining the viability of planning scheme, regulatory or other changes are simply performed by expressing them as overlaid constraints. A description of the successful implementation of this model in the Brisbane local government area as well as potential for further development is discussed in the paper below.
- "An economic basis for projecting land use development" by Paul Kidd and Peter Davidson, 2011