Conceptual sensitivity modelling and analysis on the introduction of autonomous vehicles

Department of Transport and Main Roads


Planner, Modeller

TransPosition started working on modelling Autonomous Vehicles (AV) in early 2015. After winning best paper for the AV work that was presented at the AITPM National Conference in 2015, TransPosition was engaged by the Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) to undertake sensitivity modelling for AVs.

After being commissioned by TMR, TransPosition did a lot of work to enhance the modelling of autonomous vehicles that was done previously and looked at various other issues that TMR were interested in. The focus of the new work was researching the likely uptake rates for autonomous vehicles and building a model which determines what percentage of the fleet will be fully AV by a certain year. In addition to this, extra capability was added to the model which allowed the issue of shared autonomous vehicles (autonomous taxis and multi-occupant) to be addressed. Single- and multi-occupant shared AVs will reduce overall car ownership and also parking requirements. The behavioural impacts for shared AVs are uncertain - it has been assumed that people make choices based on the marginal cost of travel. The higher marginal costs felt by users of a shared AV service lead to lower car demand; more public and active transport; and less congestion. Potential safety implications were also addressed in this work.

This work for TMR on modelling AVs is on-going.

Some of this work was presented at various Conferences and can be found at the link below:

Autonomous Vehicle Published Papers